Public data, responsibly interpreted.
The California Elder Fraud Observatory is an independent research initiative analyzing county-level trends in reported elder financial-abuse allegations across California using Adult Protective Services administrative records and U.S. Census population data.
About the Observatory
The Observatory measures one thing carefully: how many elder financial-abuse allegations are reported to each county's Adult Protective Services agency, and how that reporting has changed over six fiscal years. Counties are read against their own record over time rather than ranked against one another, because reported rates reflect outreach, staffing, referral pathways and small-count suppression as much as anything happening in a community.
Key datasets, methods, assumptions, and interpretation limits are documented publicly so that policymakers, journalists, researchers and the public can interpret county reporting patterns with appropriate context. Reported allegations are not confirmed cases, and a trend is a signal that deserves further investigation, not proof of underreporting or overreporting.
Founder of the California Elder Fraud Observatory, an independent research initiative using public administrative data, population estimates, demographic context, and statistical modeling to study county-level patterns in reported elder financial-abuse allegations across California.
Laia Chandran-Moles is a student researcher at Los Gatos High School interested in applying statistics to public policy and public health. She founded the California Elder Fraud Observatory to make county-level elder financial-abuse reporting more transparent, interpretable, and accessible to policymakers, researchers, journalists, and community organizations.
The Observatory combines publicly available Adult Protective Services administrative records with transparent statistical modeling, including explicit handling of suppressed small counts, so that readers can see both what the public record shows and how much of it is withheld. Its goal is transparency: documenting the data, the assumptions, and the limits of interpretation together.
- Public Health
- Data Science
- Public Policy
- Aging & Elder Protection
Data Sources
- California Department of Social Services (CDSS)Adult Protective Services SOC 242 administrative records: monthly financial-abuse allegation counts, FY2019–20 through FY2024–25.
- U.S. Census Bureau, American Community SurveyAnnual county population age 65+ used as the exposure denominator, plus ACS 5-year demographic context estimates.
- USDA Economic Research ServiceRural–Urban Continuum Codes (RUCC 2023) for rural / urban classification.
Independence & Acknowledgements
This is an independent research project. It is not affiliated with, reviewed by, or endorsed by the California Department of Social Services or any county Adult Protective Services agency. Those public agencies are acknowledged solely as providers of the public administrative data analyzed here.
Direct cross-county comparisons of reported rates require substantial caution, because outreach, staffing, referral pathways, population size, reporting systems and suppression all differ across counties. A trend within a county is a signal for further inquiry rather than proof of underreporting or overreporting. The Observatory publishes context alongside every rate and encourages readers to consult the Methodology page.