Change over time, county by county
Each county's reported allegation rate was modelled over six fiscal years using monthly data, with suppressed months treated as intervals rather than zeros. Trends describe change within a county, never a comparison between counties.
Statewide reported allegation rate
Per 10,000 residents age 65+, FY2019–20 through FY2024–25.
“No clear trend” means there was not enough statistical evidence after multiple-testing correction. It does not mean the county was proven to be flat.
All 58 county trends
Sortable and filterable. Annual percent change is the modelled change in reported allegations per year.
| Classification | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mono | Increasing | +51.5% | 30.5–304.7 | 0.018 | 30.6% |
| San Benito | Increasing | +38.6% | 65.0–143.0 | 0.001 | 70.8% |
| Sutter | Increasing | +31.5% | 151.7–162.8 | <0.001 | 51.4% |
| Glenn | Increasing | +29.4% | 24.5–245.2 | 0.012 | 87.5% |
| Tulare | Increasing | +21.4% | 150.6 | 0.001 | 8.3% |
| Yolo | Increasing | +20.9% | 127.9 | <0.001 | 15.3% |
| Tuolumne | Increasing | +19.2% | 95.2–112.8 | <0.001 | 45.8% |
| Calaveras | Increasing | +18.3% | 62.9–102.8 | <0.001 | 83.3% |
| Amador | No clear trend | +17.4% | 46.4–125.2 | 0.084 | 76.4% |
| San Mateo | Increasing | +17.1% | 92.2 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| San Diego | Increasing | +16.2% | 182.5 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| Santa Clara | Increasing | +15.3% | 163.9 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| Monterey | Increasing | +14.9% | 161.8 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| Placer | Increasing | +14.8% | 224.5 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| Tehama | Increasing | +14.6% | 35.2–97.1 | 0.007 | 84.7% |
| Trinity | No clear trend | +14.3% | 25.0–250.3 | 0.235 | 86.1% |
| San Joaquin | Increasing | +13.9% | 71.6 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| Marin | Increasing | +13.3% | 81.8 | <0.001 | 1.4% |
| Alameda | Increasing | +13.2% | 91.3 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| Shasta | Increasing | +13.1% | 165.3 | <0.001 | 4.2% |
| Plumas | No clear trend | +12.5% | 19.6–196.3 | 0.263 | 79.2% |
| Siskiyou | Increasing | +12.4% | 50.4–109.9 | 0.001 | 65.3% |
| San Francisco | Increasing | +11.1% | 182.2 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| Merced | No clear trend | +11.1% | 88.2–98.8 | 0.226 | 56.9% |
| Stanislaus | Increasing | +10.9% | 90.6 | <0.001 | 1.4% |
| Napa | Increasing | +10.0% | 124.1 | <0.001 | 6.9% |
| Santa Cruz | Increasing | +9.6% | 109.2 | <0.001 | 1.4% |
| Kern | Increasing | +9.4% | 130.6 | 0.006 | 0.0% |
| Mendocino | Increasing | +9.3% | 97.5 | <0.001 | 30.6% |
| Los Angeles | Increasing | +9.1% | 140.9 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| Sonoma | Increasing | +8.3% | 141.3 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| Madera | Increasing | +8.3% | 89.9–101.5 | 0.035 | 19.4% |
| Solano | Increasing | +7.1% | 88.5 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| San Luis Obispo | Increasing | +7.1% | 93.4 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| Humboldt | Increasing | +6.9% | 64.1–70.9 | 0.033 | 29.2% |
| San Bernardino | Increasing | +6.4% | 150.3 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| El Dorado | No clear trend | +4.9% | 77.3 | 0.080 | 5.6% |
| Mariposa | No clear trend | +4.8% | 41.4–218.8 | 0.667 | 90.3% |
| Orange | Increasing | +3.6% | 94.2 | <0.001 | 0.0% |
| Riverside | Increasing | +3.6% | 121.2 | 0.001 | 0.0% |
| Santa Barbara | No clear trend | +3.2% | 98.7 | 0.194 | 1.4% |
| Colusa | No clear trend | +2.8% | 26.4–263.9 | 0.799 | 68.1% |
| Contra Costa | No clear trend | +2.8% | 63.6 | 0.086 | 0.0% |
| Fresno | No clear trend | +2.3% | 52.7 | 0.235 | 0.0% |
| Lassen | No clear trend | +0.8% | 67.8–175.6 | 0.937 | 81.9% |
| Ventura | No clear trend | +0.6% | 100.8 | 0.635 | 0.0% |
| Sacramento | No clear trend | -0.1% | 83.7 | 0.937 | 0.0% |
| Sierra | No clear trend | -0.6% | 45.3–453.1 | 0.960 | 30.6% |
| Butte | No clear trend | -0.6% | 89.5 | 0.799 | 0.0% |
| Kings | No clear trend | -1.9% | 86.2–97.1 | 0.498 | 38.9% |
| Imperial | No clear trend | -2.5% | 19.8–49.0 | 0.707 | 69.4% |
| Del Norte | No clear trend | -3.5% | 37.8–86.5 | 0.799 | 61.1% |
| Lake | No clear trend | -4.1% | 51.6–87.7 | 0.235 | 38.9% |
| Modoc | No clear trend | -5.9% | 22.0–220.4 | 0.635 | 51.4% |
| Nevada | Decreasing | -8.3% | 39.3–54.3 | 0.004 | 27.8% |
| Yuba | No clear trend | -10.9% | 8.1–81.4 | 0.265 | 76.4% |
| Inyo | No clear trend | -13.5% | 25.7–256.7 | 0.235 | 77.8% |
| Alpine | No clear trend | -65.3% | 0.0 | 0.078 | 4.2% |
Showing 58 of 58 counties · statewide mean suppression 28.6% of county-months.
County trends were estimated using monthly interval-censored Negative Binomial models with year-specific senior-population exposure. Statistical significance was corrected across all 58 county tests using the Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate procedure.
A rising number of reported allegations may reflect increased awareness, mandated-reporter training, referral-pathway changes, senior population growth, or a change in exploitation itself. These data cannot distinguish between those explanations.