Trends

Change over time, county by county

Each county's reported allegation rate was modelled over six fiscal years using monthly data, with suppressed months treated as intervals rather than zeros. Trends describe change within a county, never a comparison between counties.

Statewide reported allegation rate

Per 10,000 residents age 65+, FY2019–20 through FY2024–25.

036721081442019–202020–212021–222022–232023–242024–25Fiscal year
Midpoint scenarioLow–high suppression scenario rangeReported allegations per 10,000 residents age 65+
Increasing
34 counties
No clear trend
23 counties
Decreasing
1 county
Interpreting “no clear trend”

“No clear trend” means there was not enough statistical evidence after multiple-testing correction. It does not mean the county was proven to be flat.

All 58 county trends

Sortable and filterable for navigation only. Modeled annual change in the reported allegation rate relative to the population age 65+. Sorting this table is not a ranking of counties.

County trend classifications, annual percent change, FY2024–25 reported rate, FDR q-value and suppression share
Classification
MonoIncreasing+51.5%30.5–304.70.01830.6%
San BenitoIncreasing+38.6%65.0–143.00.00170.8%
SutterIncreasing+31.5%151.7–162.8<0.00151.4%
GlennIncreasing+29.4%24.5–245.20.01287.5%
TulareIncreasing+21.4%150.60.0018.3%
YoloIncreasing+20.9%127.9<0.00115.3%
TuolumneIncreasing+19.2%95.2–112.8<0.00145.8%
CalaverasIncreasing+18.3%62.9–102.8<0.00183.3%
AmadorNo clear trend+17.4%46.4–125.20.08476.4%
San MateoIncreasing+17.1%92.2<0.0010.0%
San DiegoIncreasing+16.2%182.5<0.0010.0%
Santa ClaraIncreasing+15.3%163.9<0.0010.0%
MontereyIncreasing+14.9%161.8<0.0010.0%
PlacerIncreasing+14.8%224.5<0.0010.0%
TehamaIncreasing+14.6%35.2–97.10.00784.7%
TrinityNo clear trend+14.3%25.0–250.30.23586.1%
San JoaquinIncreasing+13.9%71.6<0.0010.0%
MarinIncreasing+13.3%81.8<0.0011.4%
AlamedaIncreasing+13.2%91.3<0.0010.0%
ShastaIncreasing+13.1%165.3<0.0014.2%
PlumasNo clear trend+12.5%19.6–196.30.26379.2%
SiskiyouIncreasing+12.4%50.4–109.90.00165.3%
San FranciscoIncreasing+11.1%182.2<0.0010.0%
MercedNo clear trend+11.1%88.2–98.80.22656.9%
StanislausIncreasing+10.9%90.6<0.0011.4%
NapaIncreasing+10.0%124.1<0.0016.9%
Santa CruzIncreasing+9.6%109.2<0.0011.4%
KernIncreasing+9.4%130.60.0060.0%
MendocinoIncreasing+9.3%97.5<0.00130.6%
Los AngelesIncreasing+9.1%140.9<0.0010.0%
SonomaIncreasing+8.3%141.3<0.0010.0%
MaderaIncreasing+8.3%89.9–101.50.03519.4%
SolanoIncreasing+7.1%88.5<0.0010.0%
San Luis ObispoIncreasing+7.1%93.4<0.0010.0%
HumboldtIncreasing+6.9%64.1–70.90.03329.2%
San BernardinoIncreasing+6.4%150.3<0.0010.0%
El DoradoNo clear trend+4.9%77.30.0805.6%
MariposaNo clear trend+4.8%41.4–218.80.66790.3%
OrangeIncreasing+3.6%94.2<0.0010.0%
RiversideIncreasing+3.6%121.20.0010.0%
Santa BarbaraNo clear trend+3.2%98.70.1941.4%
ColusaNo clear trend+2.8%26.4–263.90.79968.1%
Contra CostaNo clear trend+2.8%63.60.0860.0%
FresnoNo clear trend+2.3%52.70.2350.0%
LassenNo clear trend+0.8%67.8–175.60.93781.9%
VenturaNo clear trend+0.6%100.80.6350.0%
SacramentoNo clear trend-0.1%83.70.9370.0%
SierraNo clear trend-0.6%45.3–453.10.96030.6%
ButteNo clear trend-0.6%89.50.7990.0%
KingsNo clear trend-1.9%86.2–97.10.49838.9%
ImperialNo clear trend-2.5%19.8–49.00.70769.4%
Del NorteNo clear trend-3.5%37.8–86.50.79961.1%
LakeNo clear trend-4.1%51.6–87.70.23538.9%
ModocNo clear trend-5.9%22.0–220.40.63551.4%
NevadaDecreasing-8.3%39.3–54.30.00427.8%
YubaNo clear trend-10.9%8.1–81.40.26576.4%
InyoNo clear trend-13.5%25.7–256.70.23577.8%
AlpineNo clear trend-65.3%0.00.0784.2%

Showing 58 of 58 counties · 28.6% of all county-month observations were suppressed (1,195 of 4,176).

How these trends were estimated

County trends were estimated using monthly interval-censored Negative Binomial models with year-specific senior-population exposure. Statistical significance was corrected across all 58 county tests using the Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate procedure.

Reported levels should not be ranked or interpreted as comparative prevalence. Tables may be sorted for navigation, but a sorted table is not a ranking of true elder financial abuse.

A rising number of reported allegations may reflect increased awareness, mandated-reporter training, referral-pathway changes, senior population growth, or a change in exploitation itself. These data cannot distinguish between those explanations.